Housing Supply and Demand – DC Market in Balance

A common question I get from clients is the following: With all the new apartment and condo buildings currently under construction in the district, are we in for a collapse in prices as supply outpaces demand?

According to a 2014 year-end letter from the office of the mayor, DC is adding residential units at a pace of 4,000 per year. Meanwhile, DC population has increased by more than 10,000 people per year over the past five years, supported by the city’s goal of increasing population by 250,000 between 2010 and 2030.

The shifting demographics of DC are much more complex than those numbers. While half of DC’s population growth is due to net migration, the other half is due to more births than deaths, and newborns are notoriously inactive in the real estate market. In the end though, it appears that a good balance has been struck between supply and demand in the DC market. As of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report, area housing costs are up 3.1% for the year, in the context of a 1.2% increase in all items, both tame figures by historical norms.

These numbers could be teased apart to tell an increasingly complex tale of the constantly shifting real estate landscape, but in broad strokes, the market looks healthy, neither inflating a bubble nor sliding towards collapse.